DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4091.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84856952281
论文题名: Probabilistic projections of climate change for the mid-Atlantic region of the United States: Validation of precipitation downscaling during the historical era
作者: Ning L. ; Mann M.E. ; Crane R. ; Wagener T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2012
卷: 25, 期: 2 起始页码: 509
结束页码: 526
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric variables
; Circulation patterns
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Data sets
; Down-scaling
; General circulation model simulations
; High resolution
; Historical analysis
; Meteorological variables
; Model simulation
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Pennsylvania
; Point precipitation
; Precipitation data
; Precipitation distribution
; Probabilistic projections
; Rainy days
; Reanalysis
; Sea level pressure
; Standard deviation
; State of Pennsylvania
; Statistical downscaling
; Statistical techniques
; Temporal characteristics
; Time-scales
; Computer simulation
; Conformal mapping
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Pressure
; Probability distributions
; Rain
; Sea level
; Climate change
; climate change
; computer simulation
; downscaling
; general circulation model
; precipitation (climatology)
; probability
; sea level pressure
; Pennsylvania
; United States
英文摘要: This study uses a statistical downscaling method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) to produce highresolution, downscaled precipitation estimates over the state of Pennsylvania in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The SOMs approach derives a transfer function between large-scale mean atmospheric states and local meteorological variables (daily point precipitation values) of interest. First, the SOM was trained using seven coarsely resolved atmospheric variables from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset to model observed daily precipitation data from 17 stations across Pennsylvania for the period 1979-2005. Employing the same coarsely resolved variables from nine general circulation model (GCM) simulations taken from the historical analysis of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), the trained SOM was subsequently applied to simulate daily precipitation at the same 17 sites for the period 1961-2000. The SOM analysis indicates that the nine model simulations exhibit similar synoptic-scale features to the (NCEP) observations over the 1979-2007 training interval. An analysis of the sea level pressure signatures and the precipitation distribution corresponding to the trainedSOMshows that it is effective in differentiating characteristic synoptic circulation patterns and associated precipitation. The downscaling approach provides a faithful reproduction of the observed probability distributions and temporal characteristics of precipitation on both daily and monthly time scales. The downscaled precipitation field shows significant improvement over the raw GCM precipitation fields with regard to observed average monthly precipitation amounts, average monthly number of rainy days, and standard deviations of monthly precipitation amounts, although certain caveats are noted. © 2012 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/52606
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Earth, Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Geography, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ning L.,Mann M.E.,Crane R.,et al. Probabilistic projections of climate change for the mid-Atlantic region of the United States: Validation of precipitation downscaling during the historical era[J]. Journal of Climate,2012-01-01,25(2)