DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2948-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84951792780
论文题名: Prediction of dominant intraseasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon
作者: Oh H. ; Ha K.-J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2016
卷: 47, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2025
结束页码: 2037
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Baiu
; Changma
; East Asian summer monsoon (EASM)
; Intraseasonal monsoon
; Meiyu
; Predictability
; Western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM)
英文摘要: Intraseasonal monsoon prediction is the most imperative task, but there remains an enduring challenge in climate science. The present study aims to provide a physical understanding of the sources for prediction of dominant intraseasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon (EA-WNPSM): pre-Meiyu&Baiu, Changma&Meiyu, WNPSM, and monsoon gyre modes classified by the self-organizing map analysis. Here, we use stepwise regression to determine the predictors for the four modes in the EA-WNPSM. The selected predictors are based on the persistent and tendency signals of the sea surface temperature (SST)/2m air temperature and sea level pressure fields, which reflect the asymmetric response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the ocean and land surface anomalous conditions. For the pre-Meiyu&Baiu mode, the SST cooling tendency over the western North Pacific (WNP), which persists into summer, is the distinguishing contributor that results in strong baroclinic instability. A major precursor for the Changma&Meiyu mode is related to the WNP subtropical high, induced by the persistent SST difference between the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific. The WNPSM mode is mostly affected by the Pacific-Japan pattern, and monsoon gyre mode is primarily associated with a persistent SST cooling over the tropical Indian Ocean by the preceding ENSO signal. This study carries important implications for prediction by establishing valuable precursors of the four modes including nonlinear characteristics. © 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53503
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Oh H.,Ha K.-J.. Prediction of dominant intraseasonal modes in the East Asian-western North Pacific summer monsoon[J]. Climate Dynamics,2016-01-01,47(2017-07-08)