DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2319-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84932193012
论文题名: A mechanism for the multidecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnection with Europe
作者: López-Parages J. ; Rodríguez-Fonseca B. ; Terray L.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2015
卷: 45, 期: 2017-03-04 起始页码: 867
结束页码: 880
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric teleconnection
; ENSO
; European rainfall
; Multidecadal modulation
英文摘要: El Niño phenomenon is the main oceanic driver of the interannual atmospheric variability and a determinant source of predictability in the tropics and extratropics. Several studies have found a consistent and statistically significant impact of El Niño over the North Atlantic European Sector, which could lead to an improvement of the skill of current seasonal forecast systems over Europe. Nevertheless, this signal seems to be non-stationary in time and it could be modulated by the ocean at very low frequencies. Hence, the seasonal climate predictability based on El Niño could be variable and only effective for specific time periods. This study considers the multidecadal changes in the ocean mean state as a possible modulator of ENSO-European rainfall teleconnection at interannual timescales. A long control simulation of the CNRM-CM5 model is used to substantiate this hypothesis and to assess if it can be relevant to explain the non-stationary behavior seen in the twentieth century. The model reproduces the leading rainfall mode over the Euro-Mediterranean region, and its non stationary link with El Niño. This teleconnection has been identified in coincidence with changes of the zonal mean flow at upper levels, which influence the propagation of the waves from the tropics to extratropics through the atmosphere and, hence, to explain the changing impact over Europe. However, the non-stationary impact observed along the twentieth century could also be related to the observed changes in the interannual oceanic forcing signal itself. The results obtained suggest, for both hypotheses, an important role of the natural internal variability of the ocean at multidecadal timescales. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/53969
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Departamento de Física de la Tierra, Astronomía y Astrofísica I (Geofísica y Meteorología). Instituto de Geociencias UCM-CSIC, Facultad de C.C. Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM), Pza de las Ciencias, Madrid, Spain; Climate Modelling and Global Change Team, CERFACS/CNRS, 42 Avenue 14 Gaspard Coriolis, Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
López-Parages J.,Rodríguez-Fonseca B.,Terray L.. A mechanism for the multidecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnection with Europe[J]. Climate Dynamics,2015-01-01,45(2017-03-04)