globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1812-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84894334999
论文题名:
Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system: Part I: Boreal summer and fall seasons
作者: Misra V.; Li H.; Wu Z.; DiNapoli S.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期:2017-05-06
起始页码: 1425
结束页码: 1448
语种: 英语
英文摘要: This paper shows demonstrable improvement in the global seasonal climate predictability of boreal summer (at zero lead) and fall (at one season lead) seasonal mean precipitation and surface temperature from a two-tiered seasonal hindcast forced with forecasted SST relative to two other contemporary operational coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. The results from an extensive set of seasonal hindcasts are analyzed to come to this conclusion. This improvement is attributed to: (1) The multi-model bias corrected SST used to force the atmospheric model. (2) The global atmospheric model which is run at a relatively high resolution of 50 km grid resolution compared to the two other coupled ocean-atmosphere models. (3) The physics of the atmospheric model, especially that related to the convective parameterization scheme. The results of the seasonal hindcast are analyzed for both deterministic and probabilistic skill. The probabilistic skill analysis shows that significant forecast skill can be harvested from these seasonal hindcasts relative to the deterministic skill analysis. The paper concludes that the coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal hindcasts have reached a reasonable fidelity to exploit their SST anomaly forecasts to force such relatively higher resolution two tier prediction experiments to glean further boreal summer and fall seasonal prediction skill. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54282
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, P.O. Box 3064520, Tallahassee, FL, 32306-4520, United States; Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr., 200 Johnson Bldg., Tallahassee, FL, 32306-2840, United States; Florida Climate Institute, Florida State University, 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr., 200 Johnson Bldg., Tallahassee, FL, 32306-2840, United States

Recommended Citation:
Misra V.,Li H.,Wu Z.,et al. Global seasonal climate predictability in a two tiered forecast system: Part I: Boreal summer and fall seasons[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-05-06)
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