| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-014-2130-8
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84899928353
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| 论文题名: | Evaluation of delta change and bias correction methods for future daily precipitation: Intermodel cross-validation using ENSEMBLES simulations |
| 作者: | Räty O.; Räisänen J.; Ylhäisi J.S.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 42, 期:2017-09-10 | | 起始页码: | 2287
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| 结束页码: | 2303
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Bias correction
; Climate change
; Climate projection
; Daily variability
; Delta change
; ENSEMBLES
; Precipitation
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| 英文摘要: | Due to inherent limitations in climate models, their output is biased in relation to observed climate and as such does not provide reliable climate projections. In this study, nine methods used to account for biases in daily precipitation are tested. First, cross-validation tests were made using a set of ENSEMBLES regional model simulations to gain insights in the potential performance of the methods in the future climate. The results show that quantile mapping type methods, being able to modify the shape of the precipitation distribution, often outperform other types of methods. Yet, as the performance depends on time of the year, location and part of the distribution considered, it is not possible to distinguish one universally best performing method. In addition, the improvement relative to the projections that would have been obtained assuming unchanged climate is relatively modest, particularly in the early twentyfirst century conditions. Further tests with different method combinations show that the projections could be potentially improved by using several well performing methods in parallel. In the second part of the study, contributions of method and model differences to the overall variation of precipitation projections are assessed. It is shown that although intermodel differences play an important role, uncertainties related to intermethod differences are substantial, particularly in the tails of the distribution. This suggests that method uncertainty should be taken into account when constructing daily precipitation projections, possibly by using several methods in parallel. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54332
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 48, Erik Palménin Aukio 1, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Räty O.,Räisänen J.,Ylhäisi J.S.. Evaluation of delta change and bias correction methods for future daily precipitation: Intermodel cross-validation using ENSEMBLES simulations[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-09-10)
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