DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-2032-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84891451471
论文题名: Sources of uncertainty in projections of twenty-first century westerly wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, in CMIP5 climate models
作者: Bracegirdle T.J. ; Turner J. ; Hosking J.S. ; Phillips T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 43, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 2093
结束页码: 2104
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Glacier retreat
; Teleconnection
; Tropical
英文摘要: The influence of changes in winds over the Amundsen Sea has been shown to be a potentially key mechanism in explaining rapid loss of ice from major glaciers in West Antarctica, which is having a significant impact on global sea level. Here, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model data are used to assess twenty-first century projections in westerly winds over the Amundsen Sea (UAS). The importance of model uncertainty and internal climate variability in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario projections are quantified and potential sources of model uncertainty are considered. For the decade 2090–2099 the CMIP5 models show an ensemble mean twenty-first century response in annual mean UAS of 0.3 and 0.7 m s−1 following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively. However, as a consequence of large internal climate variability over the Amundsen Sea, it takes until around 2030 (2065) for the RCP8.5 response to exceed one (two) standard deviation(s) of decadal internal variability. In all scenarios and seasons the model uncertainty is large. However the present-day climatological zonal wind bias over the whole South Pacific, which is important for tropical teleconnections, is strongly related to inter-model differences in projected change in UAS (more skilful models show larger UAS increases). This relationship is significant in winter (r = −0.56) and spring (r = −0.65), when the influence of the tropics on the Amundsen Sea region is known to be important. Horizontal grid spacing and present day sea ice extent are not significant sources of inter-model spread. © 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. 资助项目: NERC, Natural Environment Research Council
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54466
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Bracegirdle T.J.,Turner J.,Hosking J.S.,et al. Sources of uncertainty in projections of twenty-first century westerly wind changes over the Amundsen Sea, West Antarctica, in CMIP5 climate models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,43(2017-07-08)