DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1759-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84891624803
论文题名: Intrinsic modulation of ENSO predictability viewed through a local Lyapunov lens
作者: Karamperidou C. ; Cane M.A. ; Lall U. ; Wittenberg A.T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 253
结束页码: 270
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; Local Lyapunov exponents
; Predictability
英文摘要: The presence of rich ENSO variability in the long unforced simulation of GFDL's CM2.1 motivates the use of tools from dynamical systems theory to study variability in ENSO predictability, and its connections to ENSO magnitude, frequency, and physical evolution. Local Lyapunov exponents (LLEs) estimated from the monthly NINO3 SSTa model output are used to characterize periods of increased or decreased predictability. The LLEs describe the growth of infinitesimal perturbations due to internal variability, and are a measure of the immediate predictive uncertainty at any given point in the system phase-space. The LLE-derived predictability estimates are compared with those obtained from the error growth in a set of re-forecast experiments with CM2.1. It is shown that the LLEs underestimate the error growth for short forecast lead times (less than 8 months), while they overestimate it for longer lead times. The departure of LLE-derived error growth rates from the re-forecast rates is a linear function of forecast lead time, and is also sensitive to the length of the time series used for the LLE calculation. The LLE-derived error growth rate is closer to that estimated from the re-forecasts for a lead time of 4 months. In the 2,000-year long simulation, the LLE-derived predictability at the 4-month lead time varies (multi)decadally only by 9-18 %. Active ENSO periods are more predictable than inactive ones, while epochs with regular periodicity and moderate magnitude are classified as the most predictable by the LLEs. Events with a deeper thermocline in the west Pacific up to five years prior to their peak, along with an earlier deepening of the thermocline in the east Pacific in the months preceding the peak, are classified as more predictable. Also, the GCM is found to be less predictable than nature under this measure of predictability. © 2013 Springer-Verlag (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54476
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Earth and Environmental Engineering Department, Columbia University, 500 West 120th Street, Mudd Bldg, NY, NY, 10027, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, 61 Route 9W, PO Box 1000, Palisades, NY, 10964, United States; US DOC/NOAA/GFDL, Forrestal Campus, US Route 1, Princeton, NJ, 08542, United States; Department of Meteorology, School of Ocean and Earth Sciences and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, United States
Recommended Citation:
Karamperidou C.,Cane M.A.,Lall U.,et al. Intrinsic modulation of ENSO predictability viewed through a local Lyapunov lens[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-01-02)