globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1690-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84891597964
论文题名:
Autoregressive logistic regression applied to atmospheric circulation patterns
作者: Guanche Y.; Mínguez R.; Méndez F.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2014
卷: 42, 期:2017-01-02
起始页码: 537
结束页码: 552
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Autoregressive logistic regression ; Circulation patterns ; Simulation
英文摘要: Autoregressive logistic regression models have been successfully applied in medical and pharmacology research fields, and in simple models to analyze weather types. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a general framework to study atmospheric circulation patterns capable of dealing simultaneously with: seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of different orders. To show its effectiveness on modeling performance, daily atmospheric circulation patterns identified from observed sea level pressure fields over the Northeastern Atlantic, have been analyzed using this framework. Model predictions are compared with probabilities from the historical database, showing very good fitting diagnostics. In addition, the fitted model is used to simulate the evolution over time of atmospheric circulation patterns using Monte Carlo method. Simulation results are statistically consistent with respect to the historical sequence in terms of (1) probability of occurrence of the different weather types, (2) transition probabilities and (3) persistence. The proposed model constitutes an easy-to-use and powerful tool for a better understanding of the climate system. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54631
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建

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作者单位: Environmental Hydraulics Institute, IH Cantabria, Universidad de Cantabria, C/ Isabel Torres n 15, Parque Cientifico y Tecnologico de, Santander, 39011, Spain

Recommended Citation:
Guanche Y.,Mínguez R.,Méndez F.J.. Autoregressive logistic regression applied to atmospheric circulation patterns[J]. Climate Dynamics,2014-01-01,42(2017-01-02)
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