DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1664-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84884704730
论文题名: An explanation for the difference between twentieth and twenty-first century land-sea warming ratio in climate models
作者: Joshi M.M. ; Lambert F.H. ; Webb M.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 41, 期: 2017-07-08 起始页码: 1853
结束页码: 1869
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate modelling
; Radiative forcing
; Surface temperature
英文摘要: A land-sea surface warming ratio (or φ) that exceeds unity is a robust feature of both observed and modelled climate change. Interestingly, though climate models have differing values for φ, it remains almost time-invariant for a wide range of twenty-first century climate transient warming scenarios, while varying in simulations of the twentieth century. Here, we present an explanation for time-invariant land-sea warming ratio that applies if three conditions on radiative forcing are met: first, spatial variations in the climate forcing must be sufficiently small that the lower free troposphere warms evenly over land and ocean; second, the temperature response must not be large enough to change the global circulation to zeroth order; third, the temperature response must not be large enough to modify the boundary layer amplification mechanisms that contribute to making φ exceed unity. Projected temperature changes over this century are too small to breach the latter two conditions. Hence, the mechanism appears to show why both twenty-first century and time-invariant CO2 forcing lead to similar values of φ in climate models despite the presence of transient ocean heat uptake, whereas twentieth century forcing-which has a significant spatially confined anthropogenic tropospheric aerosol component that breaches the first condition-leads to modelled values of φ that vary widely amongst models and in time. Our results suggest an explanation for the behaviour of φ when climate is forced by other regionally confined forcing scenarios such as geo-engineered changes to oceanic clouds. Our results show how land-sea contrasts in surface and boundary layer characteristics act in tandem to produce the land-sea surface warming contrast. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/54770
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: NCAS Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QF, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Department of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Joshi M.M.,Lambert F.H.,Webb M.J.. An explanation for the difference between twentieth and twenty-first century land-sea warming ratio in climate models[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,41(2017-07-08)