DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1435-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84874332690
论文题名: Multi-model projections of twenty-first century North Pacific winter wave climate under the IPCC A2 scenario
作者: Graham N.E. ; Cayan D.R. ; Bromirski P.D. ; Flick R.E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1335
结束页码: 1360
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; North Pacific
; Ocean waves
英文摘要: A dynamical wave model implemented over the North Pacific Ocean was forced with winds from three coupled global climate models (CGCMs) run under a medium-to-high scenario for greenhouse gas emissions through the twenty-first century. The results are analyzed with respect to changes in upper quantiles of significant wave height (90th and 99th percentile HS) during boreal winter. The three CGCMs produce surprisingly similar patterns of change in winter wave climate during the century, with waves becoming 10-15 % smaller over the lower mid-latitudes of the North Pacific, particularly in the central and western ocean. These decreases are closely associated with decreasing windspeeds along the southern flank of the main core of the westerlies. At higher latitudes, 99th percentile wave heights generally increase, though the patterns of change are less uniform than at lower latitudes. The increased wave heights at high latitudes appear to be due a variety of wind-related factors including both increased windspeeds and changes in the structure of the wind field, these varying from model to model. For one of the CGCMs, a commonly used statistical approach for estimating seasonal quantiles of HS on the basis of seasonal mean sea level pressure (SLP) is used to develop a regression model from 60 years of twentieth century data as a training set, and then applied using twenty-first century SLP data. The statistical model reproduces the general pattern of decreasing twenty-first century wave heights south of ~40 N, but underestimates the magnitude of the changes by ~50-70 %, reflecting relatively weak coupling between sea level pressure and wave heights in the CGCM data and loss of variability in the statistically projected wave heights. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55058
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA, United States; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, La Jolla, CA, United States; California Department of Boating and Waterways, Sacramento, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Graham N.E.,Cayan D.R.,Bromirski P.D.,et al. Multi-model projections of twenty-first century North Pacific winter wave climate under the IPCC A2 scenario[J]. Climate Dynamics,2013-01-01,40(2017-05-06)