| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-012-1392-2
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84867100458
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| 论文题名: | Stochastic control of Indian megadroughts and megafloods |
| 作者: | Hunt B.G.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2012
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| 卷: | 39, 期:2017-07-08 | | 起始页码: | 1801
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| 结束页码: | 1821
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Indian monsoon
; Megadroughts
; Megafloods
; Multi-millennial simulation
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| 英文摘要: | A multi-millennial run of the CSIRO Mark2 coupled climatic model has been used to investigate megadroughts and megafloods during the Indian summer monsoon (June-September). These extreme events were defined as having rainfall anomalies at least two standard deviations from normal. More than ten megafloods and more than twenty megadroughts, so-defined, were found to occur in a 5,000-year period of the simulation. The simulation replicated most of the major features of the observed summer monsoon, but a comparison of observed and simulated probability density functions suggests that the limited observed rainfall time series to date does not adequately sample the possible range of Indian monsoonal rainfall. An investigation of causal mechanisms of Indian rainfall variability reproduced the observed negative correlation with ENSO events, but it was found that neither extreme ENSO events or extremes of a range of other climatic phenomena coincided with the simulated, extreme megadroughts and megafloods. This disconnect between these events is succinctly illustrated with examples related to ENSO events in particular. Autoregressive and FFT analysis of observed and simulated Indian summer monsoon rainfall time series revealed them to consist of white noise. Since these time series therefore consist of random outcomes, it is apparent that these Indian megadroughts and megafloods are the consequence of stochastic influences. Thus, it is concluded that the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoonal rainfall cannot be predicted in general, nor can megadroughts and megafloods in particular. © 2012 Springer-Verlag. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55159
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: | CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Private Bag 1, Aspendale, VIC 3195, Australia
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Hunt B.G.. Stochastic control of Indian megadroughts and megafloods[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,39(2017-07-08)
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