DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1057-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84857439624
论文题名: Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios
作者: Slangen A.B.A. ; Katsman C.A. ; van de Wal R.S.W. ; Vermeersen L.L.A. ; Riva R.E.M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期: 2017-05-06 起始页码: 1191
结束页码: 1209
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Regional sea level
; Sea-level projections
英文摘要: Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative sea-level (RSL) change can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century local RSL change estimates based on an ensemble of coupled climate model simulations for three emission scenarios. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), the same model simulations were used for their projections of global mean sea-level rise. The contribution of the small glaciers and ice caps to local RSL change is calculated with a glacier model, based on a volume-area approach. The contributions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are obtained from IPCC AR4 estimates. The RSL distribution resulting from the land ice mass changes is then calculated by solving the sea-level equation for a rotating, elastic Earth model. Next, we add the pattern of steric RSL changes obtained from the coupled climate models and a model estimate for the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment. The resulting ensemble mean RSL pattern reveals that many regions will experience RSL changes that differ substantially from the global mean. For the A1B ensemble, local RSL change values range from -3.91 to 0.79 m, with a global mean of 0.47 m. Although the RSL amplitude differs, the spatial patterns are similar for all three emission scenarios. The spread in the projections is dominated by the distribution of the steric contribution, at least for the processes included in this study. Extreme ice loss scenarios may alter this picture. For individual sites, we find a standard deviation for the combined contributions of approximately 10 cm, regardless of emission scenario. © 2011 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55349
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, Netherlands; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands; Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, TU Delft, Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS Delft, Netherlands; TU Delft, Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS Delft, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Slangen A.B.A.,Katsman C.A.,van de Wal R.S.W.,et al. Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-05-06)