DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0955-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84855281027
论文题名: Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind speeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios
作者: Pryor S.C. ; Barthelmie R.J. ; Clausen N.E. ; Drews M. ; MacKellar N. ; Kjellström E.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2012
卷: 38, 期: 2017-01-02 起始页码: 189
结束页码: 208
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Dynamical downscaling
; Energy density
; Scandinavia
; Wind climates
英文摘要: Dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 using HIRHAM5 and RCA3 for a northern European domain focused on Scandinavia indicates sustained extreme wind speeds with long recurrence intervals (50 years) and intense winds are not likely to evolve out of the historical envelope of variability until the end of C21st. Even then, significant changes are indicated only in the SW of the domain and across the central Baltic Sea where there is some evidence for relatively small magnitude increases in the 50 year return period wind speed (of up to 15%). There are marked differences in results based on the two Regional Climate Models. Additionally, internal (inherent) variability and initial conditions exert a strong impact on projected wind climates throughout the twenty-first century. Simulations of wind gusts by one of the RCMs (RCA3) indicate some evidence for increased magnitudes (of up to +10%) in the southwest of the domain and across the central Baltic Sea by the end of the current century. As in prior downscaling of ECHAM4, dynamical downscaling of ECHAM5 indicates a tendency towards increased energy density and thus wind power generation potential over the course of the C21st. However, caution should be used in interpreting this inference given the high degree of wind climate projection spread that derives from the specific AOGCM and RCM used in the downscaling. © 2010 Springer-Verlag. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/55401
Appears in Collections: 过去全球变化的重建
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作者单位: Atmospheric Science Program, College of Arts and Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405, United States; Wind Energy Division, Risø-DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark; The Danish Climate Centre, DMI, Lyngbyvej 100, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark; Rossby Centre, SMHI, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Pryor S.C.,Barthelmie R.J.,Clausen N.E.,et al. Analyses of possible changes in intense and extreme wind speeds over northern Europe under climate change scenarios[J]. Climate Dynamics,2012-01-01,38(2017-01-02)