DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058282
论文题名: Were global numerical weather prediction systems capable of forecasting the extreme Colorado rainfall of 9-16 September 2013?
作者: Lavers D.A. ; Villarini G.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8285
EISSN: 1944-8016
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期: 24 起始页码: 6405
结束页码: 6410
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Colorado
; extreme rainfall
; numerical weather prediction
Scopus关键词: Accumulated rainfall
; Colorado
; Extreme precipitation
; Extreme rainfall
; Leadtime
; Numerical weather prediction
; Rainfall patterns
; Weather forecasting
; Rain
; extreme event
; flood damage
; flooding
; mortality
; numerical model
; precipitation intensity
; rainfall
; socioeconomic impact
; weather forecasting
; Boulder
; Colorado
; United States
英文摘要: From 9-16 September 2013 significant portions of Colorado experienced extreme precipitation and flooding resulting in large socioeconomic damages and fatalities. Here we investigate the ability of eight global state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction systems to forecast rainfall during the event. Forecasts were analyzed from initializations at 12 UTC 5 September to 12 UTC 12 September to determine when, and how well, the event was captured. Ensemble mean rainfall patterns initialized on 5 September (roughly 4+ day lead time) did not forecast the event's persistent nature; conversely, forecasts initialized on 9 September captured the rainfall patterns reasonably well, although with incorrect rainfall values. Accumulated rainfall forecasts improved when the region considered increased from a 0.5° area centered over Boulder to the entire state of Colorado. We conclude that the models provided guidance indicating a significant period of rainfall in Colorado from 9 September 2013, although not necessarily in the correct locations. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84890404395&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058282&partnerID=40&md5=232be491d1ea527e3139b1c6eddb7643
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5549
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering, University of Iowa, 100C. Maxwell Stanley Hydraulics Laboratory, Iowa City, IA 52242, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lavers D.A.,Villarini G.. Were global numerical weather prediction systems capable of forecasting the extreme Colorado rainfall of 9-16 September 2013?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(24).