| DOI: | 10.1002/2013GL058161
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| 论文题名: | Extreme Arctic cyclones in CMIP5 historical simulations |
| 作者: | Vavrus S.J.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8328
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| EISSN: | 1944-8059
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:23 | | 起始页码: | 6208
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| 结束页码: | 6212
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Arctic
; CMIP5
; cyclones
; extreme
; historical
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| Scopus关键词: | Anthropogenic climate changes
; Arctic
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; extreme
; General circulation model
; historical
; Mean sea level pressures
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Sea level
; Storms
; anthropogenic effect
; climate modeling
; cyclone
; extreme event
; global climate
; historical record
; ice cover
; marine atmosphere
; sea level pressure
; seasonal variation
; snow cover
; spatial variation
; warming
; Arctic Ocean
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| 英文摘要: | Increasing attention is being paid to extreme weather, including recent high-profile events involving very destructive cyclones. In summer 2012, a historically powerful cyclone traversed the Arctic, a region experiencing rapid warming and dramatic loss of ice and snow cover. This study addresses whether such powerful storms are an emerging expression of anthropogenic climate change by investigating simulated extreme Arctic cyclones during the historical period (1850-2005) among global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive. These general circulation models are able to simulate extreme pressures associated with strong polar storms without a significant dependence on model resolution. The models display realism by generating extreme Arctic storms primarily around subpolar cyclone regions (Aleutian and Icelandic) and preferentially during winter. Simulated secular trends in Arctic mean sea level pressure and extreme cyclones are equivocal; both indicate increasing storminess in some regions, but the magnitude of changes to date are modest compared with future projections. Key Points GCMs are able to simulate extremely strong Arctic cyclones GCMs reproduce the major seasonal and spatial variations of these storms Equivocal trends in simulated mean SLP and extreme Arctic cyclones since 1850 ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84888618324&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058161&partnerID=40&md5=b72ddf6273009ceb2c51cb7f616cfac6
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5592
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1225 W. Dayton Street, Madison, WI 53706, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Vavrus S.J.. Extreme Arctic cyclones in CMIP5 historical simulations[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(23).
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