DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.06.005
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021219912
论文题名: A review of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options
作者: Ramm T.D. ; White C.J. ; Chan A.H.C. ; Watson C.S.
刊名: Climate Risk Management
ISSN: 22120963
出版年: 2017
卷: 17 起始页码: 35
结束页码: 51
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptation
; Climate change
; Coastal inundation
; Evaluation
; Sea level rise
; Uncertainty
英文摘要: Rising sea levels have the potential to alter coastal flooding regimes around the world and local governments are beginning to consider how to manage uncertain coastal change. In doing so, there is increasing recognition that such change is deeply uncertain and unable to be reliably described with probabilities or a small number of scenarios. Characteristics of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options are reviewed and benchmarked against two state-of-the-art international methods suited for conditions of uncertainty (Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways). Seven out of the ten Australian case studies assumed the uncertain parameters, such as sea level rise, could be described deterministically or stochastically when identifying risk and evaluating adaptation options across multi-decadal periods. This basis is not considered sophisticated enough for long-term decision-making, implying that Australian practice needs to increase the use of scenarios to explore a much larger uncertainty space when assessing the performance of adaptation options. Two Australian case studies mapped flexible adaptation pathways to manage uncertainty, and there remains an opportunity to incorporate quantitative methodologies to support the identification of risk thresholds. The contextual framing of risk, including the approach taken to identify risk (top-down or bottom-up) and treatment of uncertain parameters, were found to be fundamental characteristics that influenced the methodology selected to evaluate adaptation options. The small sample of case studies available suggests that long-term coastal adaptation in Australian is in its infancy and there is a timely opportunity to guide local government towards robust methodologies for developing long-term coastal adaptation plans. © 2017 The Authors Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/58964
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Engineering and ICT, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, Melbourne, Australia; Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia; JBA Consulting, Skipton, United Kingdom; School of Land and Food, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Ramm T.D.,White C.J.,Chan A.H.C.,et al. A review of methodologies applied in Australian practice to evaluate long-term coastal adaptation options[J]. Climate Risk Management,2017-01-01,17