globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2016.05.004
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84991444261
论文题名:
Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan
作者: Bobojonov I.; Berg E.; Franz-Vasdeki J.; Martius C.; Lamers J.P.A.
刊名: Climate Risk Management
ISSN: 22120963
出版年: 2016
卷: 13
起始页码: 19
结束页码: 30
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Central Asia ; Climate change ; Integrated modeling ; Irrigation efficiency ; Risk management
英文摘要: A decline in water availability due to rising temperatures and growing water demand presents significant and unique challenges to agricultural producers in Uzbekistan. This study investigates the impact of climate change on farm revenues and water use efficiencies in Western Uzbekistan. A spatially explicit stochastic optimization model is used to analyze crop and water allocation decisions under conditions of uncertainty for irrigation water availability in the area for the first time. Results show farmers’ income could fall by as much as 25% with a 3.2 °C temperature increase and a 15% decline in irrigation. Farmers located in the tail end of the irrigation system could lose an even greater share of their revenues. A more conservative increase in temperature could increase farmer income by as much as 46% with a 2.2° temperature increase and only 8% decline in irrigation water since some crops benefit from extended vegetation periods. Under both pessimistic and optimistic scenarios, environmental challenges due to shallow groundwater tables may improve associated with enhanced water use efficiency. © 2016
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/59010
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, Halle (Saale), Germany; Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn, Germany; Independent Researcher, Seattle, WA, United States; Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Indonesia; Center for Development Research (ZEF), Bonn, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Bobojonov I.,Berg E.,Franz-Vasdeki J.,et al. Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan[J]. Climate Risk Management,2016-01-01,13
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