globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50779
论文题名:
Convergence of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes: Maybe in 200 years
作者: Zöller G.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8704
EISSN: 1944-8435
出版年: 2013
卷: 40, 期:15
起始页码: 3873
结束页码: 3877
语种: 英语
英文关键词: statistical seismology
Scopus关键词: Data fittings ; Frequency-magnitude distribution ; Pareto distributions ; Power law scalings ; Small earthquakes ; Specific distribution ; Statistical seismologies ; Under-sampled ; Maximum likelihood estimation ; Earthquakes ; data acquisition ; earthquake event ; error analysis ; frequency-magnitude distribution ; global perspective ; numerical model ; seismicity
英文摘要: I study the ability to estimate the tail of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes. While power-law scaling for small earthquakes is accepted by support of data, the tail remains speculative. In a recent study, Bell et al. (2013) claim that the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes converges to a tapered Pareto distribution. I show that this finding results from data fitting errors, namely from the biased maximum likelihood estimation of the corner magnitude θin strongly undersampled models. In particular, the estimation of θdepends solely on the few largest events in the catalog. Taking this into account, I compare various state-of-the-art models for the global frequency-magnitude distribution. After discarding undersampled models, the remaining ones, including the unbounded Gutenberg-Richter distribution, perform all equally well and are, therefore, indistinguishable. Convergence to a specific distribution, if it ever takes place, requires about 200 years homogeneous recording of global seismicity, at least. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84881429838&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50779&partnerID=40&md5=db49c9c6b5e473074a64d2f5e39212de
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/5968
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作者单位: Institute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, Am Neuen Palais 10, DE-14469 Potsdam, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Zöller G.. Convergence of the frequency-magnitude distribution of global earthquakes: Maybe in 200 years[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(15).
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