| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50657
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| 论文题名: | Do extreme climate events require extreme forcings? |
| 作者: | Kumar A.; Chen M.; Hoerling M.; Eischeid J.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8810
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| EISSN: | 1944-8541
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:13 | | 起始页码: | 3440
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| 结束页码: | 3445
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | climate extremes
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric noise
; Atmospheric trace gas
; Climate extremes
; Early warning
; Early Warning System
; Extreme climates
; Extreme events
; Seasonal climate forecast
; Alarm systems
; Atmospherics
; Drought
; Sea ice
; Landforms
; atmospheric gas
; climate forcing
; drought
; early warning system
; extreme event
; noise
; sea ice
; weather forecasting
; Great Plains
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| 英文摘要: | The question whether extreme climate events require extreme forcings is assessed for the severe Great Plains drought during May-July 2012. This drought event had a rapid onset, and little indications or early warnings for its sudden emergence existed. The analysis of its origins is based on a dynamical seasonal climate forecast system where states of the ocean, atmosphere, land, sea ice, and atmospheric trace gases were initialized in late April 2012, and an ensemble of forecasts was made. Based on the diagnosis of a spectrum of possible outcomes for precipitation over the Great Plains from this system, it is concluded that the extreme Great Plains drought did not require extreme external forcings and could plausibly have arisen from atmospheric noise alone. Implications for developing early warning system for extreme events in general are also discussed. Key Points Extreme climate forcings is not a necessary conditions for exteme events Atmospheric noise alone can lead to climate extremes Early warning systems may not always be feasible ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880845648&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50657&partnerID=40&md5=2b23d82efa756ef317f8f71599570a47
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6074
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 5830 University Research Ct., College Park, MD 20740, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Kumar A.,Chen M.,Hoerling M.,et al. Do extreme climate events require extreme forcings?[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(13).
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