| DOI: | 10.1002/grl.50583
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| 论文题名: | Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season |
| 作者: | Menon A.; Levermann A.; Schewe J.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-8859
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| EISSN: | 1944-8590
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 40, 期:12 | | 起始页码: | 3242
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| 结束页码: | 3247
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | CMIP-5
; monsoon
; variability
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| Scopus关键词: | Agricultural productivity
; Climate model simulations
; CMIP-5
; Day-to-day variability
; Indian monsoon rainfall
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; monsoon
; variability
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Floods
; Global warming
; Water supply
; Rain
; adaptive management
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; ensemble forecasting
; flooding
; future prospect
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; warming
; water supply
; India
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| 英文摘要: | The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall, the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply, and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the AR-5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. The relative increase by the period 2071-2100 with respect to the control period 1871-1900 ranges from 13% to 50% under the strongest scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP-8.5), in the 10 models with the most realistic monsoon climatology; and 13% to 85% when all the 20 models are considered. The spread across models reduces when variability increase per degree of global warming is considered, which is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8% - 4%/K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change. Key Points Enhanced day-to-day variability of Indian monsoon rainfall under future warming. The variability increase per degree of warming is independent of the scenario. CMIP-5 models consistently project significant increase in rainfall variability. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84880546258&doi=10.1002%2fgrl.50583&partnerID=40&md5=92be18728282740b839cec502c09a182
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6123
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain Sustainable Solutions, Telegrafenberg A31, DE-14473 Potsdam, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Menon A.,Levermann A.,Schewe J.. Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2013-01-01,40(12).
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