DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13273
论文题名: Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change
作者: Baker D.J. ; Hartley A.J. ; Butchart S.H.M. ; Willis S.G.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2016
卷: 22, 期: 7 起始页码: 2392
结束页码: 2404
语种: 英语
英文关键词: change factor method
; downscaling
; general circulation models
; important bird and biodiversity areas
; satellite remote sensing
; species distribution model
; Sub-Saharan Africa
Scopus关键词: biodiversity
; climate change
; downscaling
; general circulation model
; population distribution
; remote sensing
; species conservation
; Sub-Saharan Africa
; Aves
英文摘要: Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040–2069, 2070–2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61369
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: School of Biological & Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, Mountjoy Site, Durham, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom; BirdLife International, David Attenborough Building, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Baker D.J.,Hartley A.J.,Butchart S.H.M.,et al. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change[J]. Global Change Biology,2016-01-01,22(7)