DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12843
论文题名: Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion
作者: Cavanaugh K.C. ; Parker J.D. ; Cook-Patton S.C. ; Feller I.C. ; Williams A.P. ; Kellner J.R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2015
卷: 21, 期: 5 起始页码: 1928
结束页码: 1938
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Laguncularia racemosa
; Rhizophora mangle
; Avicennia germinans
; Climate change
; Ecological thresholds
; Freeze tolerance
; Range expansion
; Species distribution modeling
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; freeze tolerance
; mangrove
; physiology
; range expansion
; satellite imagery
; Florida [United States]
; North America
; United States
; Avicennia germinans
; Laguncularia racemosa
; Rhizophora mangle
; Rhizophoraceae
; adaptation
; Avicennia
; climate change
; Combretaceae
; demography
; freezing
; geography
; physiology
; population dynamics
; Rhizophoraceae
; satellite imagery
; species difference
; theoretical model
; United States
; wetland
; Adaptation, Biological
; Avicennia
; Climate Change
; Combretaceae
; Demography
; Florida
; Freezing
; Geography
; Models, Theoretical
; Population Dynamics
; Rhizophoraceae
; Satellite Imagery
; Species Specificity
; Wetlands
英文摘要: Predictions of climate-related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2-3.2 km yr-1 over the next 50 years. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/61733
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, 1255 Bunche Hall, Box 951524, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Smithsonian Institution, Edgewater, MD, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Colombia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Cavanaugh K.C.,Parker J.D.,Cook-Patton S.C.,et al. Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species' range expansion[J]. Global Change Biology,2015-01-01,21(5)