DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12510
论文题名: Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species
作者: Pomara L.Y. ; Ledee O.E. ; Martin K.J. ; Zuckerberg B.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 7 起始页码: 2087
结束页码: 2099
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Demographic modeling
; Distribution modeling
; Drought
; Eastern Massasauga
; Flooding
; Habitat loss
; Macrorefugia
; Range contraction
; Sistrurus
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate effect
; conservation management
; drought
; endangered species
; endemic species
; environmental change
; population decline
; range size
; refugium
; snake
; spatial distribution
; survival
; vulnerability
; animal
; animal dispersal
; biological model
; Canada
; climate change
; demography
; endangered species
; environment
; environmental protection
; female
; longevity
; male
; physiology
; population dynamics
; season
; United States
; Viperidae
; Animal Distribution
; Animals
; Canada
; Climate Change
; Conservation of Natural Resources
; Demography
; Endangered Species
; Environment
; Female
; Longevity
; Male
; Models, Biological
; Population Dynamics
; Seasons
; United States
; Viperidae
英文摘要: Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back-cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long-term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long-term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high-conservation concern. Range-wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal-limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62099
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 226 Russell Labs, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI, 53706, United States; Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, St. Paul, MN, 55155, United States; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Madison, WI, 53716, United States
Recommended Citation:
Pomara L.Y.,Ledee O.E.,Martin K.J.,et al. Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(7)