DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12390
论文题名: Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching
作者: Logan C.A. ; Dunne J.P. ; Eakin C.M. ; Donner S.D.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2014
卷: 20, 期: 1 起始页码: 125
结束页码: 139
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Acclimatization
; Adaptation
; Climate change
; Coral bleaching
; Global climate models
; Sea surface temperature
Scopus关键词: acclimation
; adaptation
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climatology
; coral bleaching
; coral reef
; global climate
; global warming
; sea surface temperature
; Anthozoa
; adaptation
; animal
; Anthozoa
; article
; climate
; coral reef
; forecasting
; physiology
; temperature
; theoretical model
; Adaptation, Physiological
; Animals
; Anthozoa
; Climate
; Coral Reefs
; Forecasting
; Models, Theoretical
; Temperature
英文摘要: Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/62111
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性
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作者单位: Division of Science and Environmental Policy, California State University, Monterey Bay, Seaside, CA, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ, United States; Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD, United States; Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z2, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Logan C.A.,Dunne J.P.,Eakin C.M.,et al. Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching[J]. Global Change Biology,2014-01-01,20(1)