DOI: 10.1002/2014JD021756
论文题名: Seasonal prediction of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in the austral wet season
作者: Charles A.N. ; Brown J.R. ; Cottrill A. ; Shelton K.L. ; Nakaegawa T. ; Kuleshov Y.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 2169897X
出版年: 2014
卷: 119, 期: 22 起始页码: 12546
结束页码: 12557
语种: 英语
英文关键词: seasonal prediction
; South Pacific Convergence Zone
Scopus关键词: annual variation
; climate modeling
; convergence
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; rainfall
; seasonal variation
; weather forecasting
; wet season
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (South)
英文摘要: The position and orientation of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), determine many of the potentially predictable interannual variations in rainfall in the South Pacific region. In this study, the predictability of the SPCZ in austral summer is assessed using two coupled (ocean-atmosphere) global circulation model (CGCM)-based seasonal prediction systems: the Japan Meteorological Agency's Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (JMA/MRI-CGCM) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA-M24). Forecasts of austral summer rainfall, initialized in November are assessed over the period 1980-2010. The climatology of CGCM precipitation in the SPCZ region compares favorably to rainfall analyses over subsets of years characterizing different phases of ENSO. While the CGCMs display biases in the mean SPCZ latitudes, they reproduce interannual variability in austral summer SPCZ position indices for forecasts out to 4 months, with temporal correlations greater than 0.6. The summer latitude of the western branch of the SPCZ is predictable with correlations of the order of 0.6 for forecasts initialized as early as September, while the correlation for the eastern branch only exceeds 0.6 for forecasts initialized in November. Encouragingly, the models are able to simulate the large displacement of the SPCZ during zonal SPCZ years 1982-1983, 1991-1992, and 1997-1998. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63031
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Climate Information Services, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Center for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Monash Weather and Climate, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Charles A.N.,Brown J.R.,Cottrill A.,et al. Seasonal prediction of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in the austral wet season[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2014-01-01,119(22)