DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.502802013
论文题名: High-resolution multisite daily rainfall projections in India with statistical downscaling for climate change impacts assessment
作者: Salvi K. ; Kannan S. ; Ghosh S.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 9 起始页码: 3557
结束页码: 3578
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Statistics
; Trees (mathematics)
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water resources
; Classification and regression tree
; Climate change impact
; Dynamic downscaling
; Future projections
; General circulation model
; Modeling and analysis
; Statistical downscaling
; Statistical relationship
; Rain
; climate change
; climate modeling
; data set
; decision making
; downscaling
; environmental impact assessment
; numerical model
; orography
; rainfall
; resolution
; statistical analysis
; Canada
; India
; Western Ghats
英文摘要: Climate change impacts assessment involves downscaling of coarse-resolution climate variables simulated by general circulation models (GCMs) using dynamic (physics-based) or statistical (data-driven) approaches. Here we use a statistical downscaling technique for projections of all-India monsoon rainfall at a resolution of 0.5 in latitude/longitude. The present statistical downscaling model utilizes classification and regression tree, and kernel regression and develops a statistical relationship between large-scale climate variables from reanalysis data and fine-resolution observed rainfall, and then applies the relationship to coarse-resolution GCM outputs. A GCM developed by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis is employed for this study with its five ensemble runs for capturing intramodel uncertainty. The model appears to effectively capture individual station means, the spatial patterns of the standard deviations, and the cross correlation between station rainfalls. Computationally expensive dynamic downscaling models have been applied for India. However, our study is the first to attempt statistical downscaling for the entire country at a resolution of 0.5. The downscaling model seems to capture the orographic effect on rainfall in mountainous areas of the Western Ghats and northeast India. The model also reveals spatially nonuniform changes in rainfall, with a possible increase for the western coastline and northeastern India (rainfall surplus areas) and a decrease in northern India, western India (rainfall deficit areas), and on the southeastern coastline, highlighting the need for a detailed hydrologic study that includes future projections regarding water availability which may be useful for water resource policy decisions. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63429
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076, India
Recommended Citation:
Salvi K.,Kannan S.,Ghosh S.. High-resolution multisite daily rainfall projections in India with statistical downscaling for climate change impacts assessment[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(9)