DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50239
论文题名: Attribution of observed historical near-surface temperature variations to anthropogenic and natural causes using CMIP5 simulations
作者: Jones G.S. ; Stott P.A. ; Christidis N.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 10 起始页码: 4001
结束页码: 4024
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate models
; observational datasets
; temperature change
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Surface properties
; Uncertainty analysis
; Global mean warming
; Model uncertainties
; Multi-model ensemble
; Near surface temperature
; observational datasets
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Structural modeling
; Temperature changes
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; data set
; exploration
; global warming
; sampling
; sea surface temperature
; Scotland
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: We have carried out an investigation into the causes of changes in near-surface temperatures from 1860 to 2010. We analyze the HadCRUT4 observational data set which has the most comprehensive set of adjustments available to date for systematic biases in sea surface temperatures and the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled models which represents the most sophisticated multi-model climate modeling exercise yet carried out. Simulations that incorporate both anthropogenic and natural factors span changes in observed temperatures between 1860 and 2010, while simulations of natural factors do not warm as much as observed. As a result of sampling a much wider range of structural modeling uncertainty, we find a wider spread of historic temperature changes in CMIP5 than was simulated by the previous multi-model ensemble, CMIP3. However, calculations of attributable temperature trends based on optimal detection support previous conclusions that human-induced greenhouse gases dominate observed global warming since the mid-20th century. With a much wider exploration of model uncertainty than previously carried out, we find that individually the models give a wide range of possible counteracting cooling from the direct and indirect effects of aerosols and other non-greenhouse gas anthropogenic forcings. Analyzing the multi-model mean over 1951-2010 (focusing on the most robust result), we estimate a range of possible contributions to the observed warming of approximately 0.6 K from greenhouse gases of between 0.6 and 1.2 K, balanced by a counteracting cooling from other anthropogenic forcings of between 0 and -0.5 K. Key PointsLatest dataset of historic temperatures compared with multi model ensembleCMIP5 models have wider range of global mean warming than CMIP3 modelsMultimodel attribution analysis shows greenhouse gases dominate warming ©2013. Crown copyright. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63761
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Met Office, FitzRoy Rd., Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Jones G.S.,Stott P.A.,Christidis N.. Attribution of observed historical near-surface temperature variations to anthropogenic and natural causes using CMIP5 simulations[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(10)