DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50190
论文题名: ENSO dynamics: Low-dimensional-chaotic or stochastic?
作者: Živkovic̈ T. ; Rypdal K.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 5 起始页码: 2161
结束页码: 2168
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO dynamics
; predictability
; stochastic processes
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Random processes
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic systems
; Time series
; High-dimensional
; Interannual variability
; predictability
; Seasonal variability
; Seasonal variation
; Southern oscillation
; Stochastic dynamics
; Stochastic forcing
; Dynamics
; chaotic dynamics
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; equatorial wave
; seasonal variation
; seasonality
; stochasticity
; time series
英文摘要: We apply a test for deterministic, low-dimensional, and nonlinear dynamics to the Niño 3 time series for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The test is positive if the time series includes the seasonal variation, but negative if it only represents the anomaly, i.e., the deviation from the seasonal cycle. The results indicate that deterministic, low-dimensional, and nonlinear dynamics in ENSO is associated with the seasonal cycle, and that the dynamics determining the interannual timing and strength of El Niño/La Niña episodes is high-dimensional/stochastic. Application of stochastic forcing to a time-delay equation for equatorial-wave dynamics can reproduce stochastic dynamics and other important aspects of ENSO. Without such stochastic forcing, this model yields deterministic, low-dimensional dynamics. With stochastic forcing, our test still yields such dynamics if the seasonal cycle is retained, but does not if the annual cycle is subtracted before the test is applied. The model results illustrate that the seasonal variability can be governed by low-dimensional nonlinear dynamics, while the interannual variability associated with ENSO is dominated by the stochastic forcing. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63881
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Swedish Institute of Space Physics, University of Uppsala, Box 537, Uppsala, 751 21, Sweden; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Tromsø, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Živkovic̈ T.,Rypdal K.. ENSO dynamics: Low-dimensional-chaotic or stochastic?[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(5)