DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50145
论文题名: Future change of the global monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models
作者: Hsu P.-C. ; Li T. ; Murakami H. ; Kitoh A.
刊名: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
ISSN: 21698996
出版年: 2013
卷: 118, 期: 3 起始页码: 1247
结束页码: 1260
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP5
; global monsoon
; global warming
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Evaporation
; Global warming
; Moisture
; Phase transitions
; Rain
; CMIP5
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; global monsoon
; Moisture convergence
; Monsoon precipitation
; Rainfall variability
; Surface evaporation
; Thermodynamic factors
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; air-sea interaction
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; correlation
; evaporation
; global perspective
; moisture content
; monsoon
; project assessment
; simulation
; thermodynamics
英文摘要: The variability of global monsoon area (GMA), global monsoon precipitation (GMP), and global monsoon intensity (GMI) in the present climate (1979-2003) and the future warmer climate (2075-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario was examined based on 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. In the present-day simulations, the ensemble mean precipitation reproduces the observed GMA, GMP, and GMI, although the spread of individual models is large. In the RCP4.5 simulations, most (17 of 19) of the CMIP5 models project enhanced global monsoon activity, with the increases of GMA, GMP, and GMI by 1.9%, 3.2%, and 1.3%, respectively, per 1 K of surface warming. The diagnosis of a column-integrated moisture budget indicates that the increase in GMP is primarily attributed to the increases of moisture convergence and surface evaporation, whereas horizontal moisture advection has little effect. A further separation of dynamic and thermodynamic factors shows that increase of the moisture convergence comes mainly from the increase of water vapor, but is partly offset by the convergence effect. The increase of the surface evaporation is caused by the increase of sea-air specific humidity difference, while the change in surface wind speed plays a minor role. The GMP experiences a great year-to-year variation, and it is significantly negatively correlated with the Niño3.4 index averaged over a typical monsoon year (defined from May to the following April) in the pre-industrial control and present-day simulations, similar to observations. Under the RCP4.5 warming, such rainfall variability is intensified, and the relationship between monsoon and El Niño strengthens. A large proportion of intensification in the year-to-year monsoon rainfall variability arises from the land monsoon region. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. 资助项目: AGS-1106536
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/63953
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, 1680 East-West Rd., Honolulu, HI 96822, United States; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Hsu P.-C.,Li T.,Murakami H.,et al. Future change of the global monsoon revealed from 19 CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,2013-01-01,118(3)