DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062063
论文题名: Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors
作者: Evans M.N. ; Smerdon J.E. ; Kaplan A. ; Tolwinski-Ward S.E. ; González-Rouco J.F.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9486
EISSN: 1944-9217
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 24 起始页码: 9127
结束页码: 9134
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate field reconstruction
; paleoclimate
; pseudoproxy experiment
; uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Wave effects
; Climate field reconstruction
; Linear temperature
; Nonlinear properties
; Paleoclimates
; Spectral characteristics
; Surface air temperatures
; Temperature information
; uncertainty
; Uncertainty analysis
; air temperature
; climate modeling
; global climate
; multivariate analysis
; paleoclimate
; proxy climate record
; spatial variation
; surface temperature
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) of the global annual surface air temperature (SAT) field and associated global area-weighted mean annual temperature (GMAT) are derived in a collection of pseudoproxy experiments for the past millennium. Pseudoproxies are modeled from temperature (T), precipitation (P), T+P, and VS-Lite (VSL), a nonlinear and multivariate proxy system model for tree ring widths. Spatial patterns of reconstruction skill and spectral bias for the T+P and VSL-derived CFRs are similar to those previously shown using temperature-only pseudoproxies but demonstrate overall degraded skill and spectral bias for SAT reconstruction. Analysis of GMAT spectra nevertheless suggests that the true GMAT frequency spectrum is resolved by those pseudoproxies (T, T+P, and VSL) that contain some temperature information. The results suggest that mixed temperature and moisture-responding paleoclimate data may produce actual GMAT reconstructions with skill, error, and spectral characteristics like those expected from univariate and linear temperature responders, but spatially resolved CFR results should be analyzed cautiously. Key Points Uncertainties may be larger than previously estimated from PPEsReconstructed GMAT based on mixed responders is relatively spectrally unbiasedCFRs based on mixed responders should be interpreted with caution ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84921792631&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL062063&partnerID=40&md5=1f1ca3fdda56f7de27684229c1a708f1
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/6750
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Evans M.N.,Smerdon J.E.,Kaplan A.,et al. Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(24).