DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2015.136
论文题名: The impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on surface water supply systems in Scotland
作者: Afzal M. ; Gagnon A.S. ; Mansell M.G.
刊名: Journal of Water and Climate Change
ISSN: 20402244
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 2 起始页码: 321
结束页码: 339
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate variability
; Hydrological modelling
; Periodicity
; Reliability
; Scotland
; Surface water supply
英文摘要: This paper analyses the impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on the reliability of water supply systems in Scotland. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate catchment runoff, and the reliability of 29 notional and six actual reservoirs was calculated using a simple storage model. The relationship between water supply reliability and the variability of rainfall was then investigated using different measures of variability. A strong correlation was found between reservoir reliability and measures representing the distribution of rainfall between the winter and summer seasons, as well as the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of annual precipitation, quantifying the variability of rainfall between years. In contrast, mainly the intra-annual CUSUM range and the variance of monthly precipitation influenced the reliability of river-intake schemes. The presence of periodic patterns in rainfall anomalies was found to be more prevalent in West Scotland, where reservoir reliability is on average lower than in the East. In addition, a sensitivity analysis revealed the small influence of evapotranspiration on reservoir reliability in comparison to rainfall variability. This study reveals the measures of variability most affecting the reliability of surface water supplies in Scotland, and could therefore help with their management in the context of future climate change. © IWA Publishing 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/67602
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: School of Engineering and Computing, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, United Kingdom; School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science (SAGES), The University of Reading, Whiteknights PO Box 227, Reading, United Kingdom; Centre for Environmental Research, School of Science and Sport, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Afzal M.,Gagnon A.S.,Mansell M.G.. The impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on surface water supply systems in Scotland[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(2)