DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060513
论文题名: The 2010-2014.3 global earthquake rate increase
作者: Parsons T. ; Geist E.L.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-9999
EISSN: 1944-9730
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 13 起始页码: 4479
结束页码: 4485
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Earthquake interactions
; statistical seismology
Scopus关键词: Poisson distribution
; Earthquake rates
; Large earthquakes
; Physical process
; Poisson process
; Rupture length
; Statistical seismologies
; Temporal distribution
; Time independents
; Earthquakes
; foreshock
; global change
; Poisson ratio
; seismicity
; seismology
英文摘要: In light of a heightened global earthquake rate during the first quarter of 2014 and recent studies concluding that large earthquakes affect global seismicity for extended periods, we revisit the question whether the temporal distribution of global earthquakes shows clustering beyond that expected from a time-independent Poisson process. We examine a broad window from 1979 to 2014.3 for M ≥ 7.0 shocks, and a narrow window for M ≥ 5.0 seismicity since 2010 that has higher than average rates. We test whether a Poisson process can be falsified at 95% confidence to assess the degree of dependent clustering in the catalogs. If aftershocks within at least one rupture length from main shocks/foreshocks are filtered, then we find no evidence of global scale M ≥ 5.2-5.6 (depending on parameters) clustering since 2010 that demands a physical explanation. There is evidence for interdependence below this threshold that could be a consequence of catalog completeness or a physical process. Key Points Earthquake rates increased recently Increased rates are random No evidence for communication above M5.6 ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84929439248&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060513&partnerID=40&md5=dadc2c336a9afebc3d8dd8fa132b1164
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7263
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: U. S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Parsons T.,Geist E.L.. The 2010-2014.3 global earthquake rate increase[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(13).