DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059692
论文题名: Robust increase of the equatorial Pacific rainfall and its variability in a warmed climate
作者: Watanabe M. ; Kamae Y. ; Kimoto M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10092
EISSN: 1944-9823
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 9 起始页码: 3227
结束页码: 3232
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; CMIP5 models
; precipitation
; tropical Pacific
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Probability distributions
; Amplitude changes
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Equatorial Pacific
; Mean precipitation
; Mean sea surfaces
; Precipitation variability
; Surface temperatures
; tropical Pacific
; Climate models
; climate change
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; sea surface temperature
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Equatorial)
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: Regional pattern of the mean precipitation changes in the latter half of the 21st century (ΔP̄) has been interpreted in terms of mean precipitation in current climate and a magnitude of increase in mean sea surface temperature (SST). Here we use state-of-the-art climate model ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and present that the amplitude of the precipitation variability, relative to slowly varying mean precipitation, coherently increases with ΔP̄, anchored over the central equatorial Pacific where a large SST swing occurs during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles. This increase owes to skewed probability distribution of precipitation as well as an asymmetrical precipitation response to positive and negative in situ SST anomalies and is robust despite uncertainty in the future ENSO amplitude change. The CMIP5 model ensembles also give a robust estimate of the projected ΔP̄ over the central equatorial Pacific, showing a 7% increase per unit increase of global-mean surface temperature. Observational constraints applied to the above relationship suggest that the amounts of increases in both mean precipitation and variability should be even larger than the model averages. Key Points Precipitation variability increases in the Pacific in late 21st century This increase is robust and coherent with increasing mean precipitation Increasing ratio estimated from model ensembles is constrained with observations © 2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901934155&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059692&partnerID=40&md5=476743f3118bebf51ca1925302a27d9f
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7356
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Watanabe M.,Kamae Y.,Kimoto M.. Robust increase of the equatorial Pacific rainfall and its variability in a warmed climate[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(9).