DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059259
论文题名: Decadal climate predictions for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model
作者: Müller W.A. ; Pohlmann H. ; Sienz F. ; Smith D.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10241
EISSN: 1944-9972
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 6 起始页码: 2100
结束页码: 2107
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decadal climate prediction
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Forecasting
; Anomaly correlations
; Climate prediction
; Coupled climate model
; Decadal predictions
; Decadal variability
; Earth system model
; Max Planck Institute
; Surface temperatures
; Climatology
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; marine atmosphere
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; rainfall
; surface temperature
; temporal analysis
; trend analysis
; warming
; weather forecasting
; Atlantic Ocean
; Europe
英文摘要: An ensemble of yearly initialized decadal predictions is performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model to examine the forecast skill for the period from 1901 to 2010. Compared to the more recent period (1960 to present day), the extended period leads to an enlargement of regions with significant anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) for predicted surface temperatures. This arises from an increased contribution of the trend, which is also found in the uninitialized runs. Additionally, in the North Atlantic decadal variability plays a larger role over the extended period, with detrended time series showing higher ACC for the extended compared to the short period. Furthermore, in contrast to the uninitialized simulations, the initialized predictions capture the North Atlantic warming events during the 1920s and 1990s, together with some of the surface climate impacts including warm European summer temperatures and a northward shift of Atlantic tropical rainfall. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84896690057&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059259&partnerID=40&md5=ebe4040f010bf2c34acd911397742b2c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7505
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Müller W.A.,Pohlmann H.,Sienz F.,et al. Decadal climate predictions for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(6).