| DOI: | 10.5194/tc-9-587-2015
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84944443406
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| 论文题名: | Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain |
| 作者: | Schirmer M; , Jamieson B
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| 刊名: | Cryosphere
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| ISSN: | 19940416
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 9, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 587
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| 结束页码: | 601
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | complex terrain
; cost-benefit analysis
; decision making
; diurnal variation
; numerical model
; precipitation intensity
; weather forecasting
; Canada
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| 英文摘要: | Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are rarely verified for mountainous regions during the winter season, although avalanche forecasters and other decision makers frequently rely on NWP models. Winter precipitation from two NWP models (GEM-LAM and GEM15) and from a precipitation analysis system (CaPA) was verified at approximately 100 stations in the mountains of western Canada and the north-western US. Ultrasonic snow depth sensors and snow pillows were used to observe daily precipitation amounts. For the first time, a detailed objective validation scheme was performed highlighting many aspects of forecast quality. Overall, the models underestimated precipitation amounts, although low precipitation categories were overestimated. The finer resolution model GEM-LAM performed best in all analysed aspects of model performance, while the precipitation analysis system performed worst. An analysis of the economic value of large precipitation categories showed that only mitigation measures with low cost-loss ratios (i.e. measures that can be performed often) will benefit from these NWP models. This means that measures with large associated costs relative to anticipated losses when the measure is not performed should not or not primarily depend on forecasted precipitation. © Author(s) 2015. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75324
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada; Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Schirmer M,, Jamieson B. Verification of analysed and forecasted winter precipitation in complex terrain[J]. Cryosphere,2015-01-01,9(2)
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