DOI: 10.1002/2013MS000294
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899121748
论文题名: Environmental control of tropical cyclones in CMIP5: A ventilation perspective
作者: Tang B ; , Camargo S ; J
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2014
卷: 6, 期: 1 起始页码: 115
结束页码: 127
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Entropy
; Environmental management
; Experiments
; Shear flow
; Tropics
; Ventilation
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Intermodel variability
; Nonlinear combination
; Potential Intensity
; Rapid intensification
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Wind shears
; Hurricanes
; climate modeling
; entropy
; historical record
; tropical cyclone
; ventilation
; wind shear
; India
英文摘要: The ventilation index serves as a theoretically based metric to assess possible changes in the statistics of tropical cyclones to combined changes in vertical wind shear, midlevel entropy deficit, and potential intensity in climate models. Model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models is used to calculate the ventilation index. The ventilation index and its relationship to tropical cyclone activity between two 20 year periods are compared: the historical experiment from 1981 to 2000 and the RCP8.5 experiment from 2081 to 2100. The general tendency is for an increase in the seasonal ventilation index in the majority of the tropical cyclone basins, with exception of the North Indian basin. All the models project an increase in the midlevel entropy deficit in the tropics, although the effects of this increase on the ventilation index itself are tempered by a compensating increase in the potential intensity and a decrease in the vertical wind shear in most tropical cyclone basins. The nonlinear combination of the terms in the ventilation index results in large regional and intermodel variability. Basin changes in the ventilation index are well correlated with changes in the frequency of tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification in the climate models. However, there is large uncertainty in the projections of the ventilation index and the corresponding effects on changes in the statistics of tropical cyclone activity. Key Points Changes in the ventilation index are calculated for the RCP8.5 scenario There is a general tendency for the ventilation to increase in the tropics Tropical cyclone activity changes correlate well with ventilation changes © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76085
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany - State University of New York, Albany NY, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Tang B,, Camargo S,J. Environmental control of tropical cyclones in CMIP5: A ventilation perspective[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2014-01-01,6(1)