| DOI: | 10.1002/wcc.217
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84879216416
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| 论文题名: | Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: Status and prospects |
| 作者: | Doblas-Reyes F; J; , García-Serrano J; , Lienert F; , Biescas A; P; , Rodrigues L; R; L
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| 刊名: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
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| ISSN: | 17577780
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| 出版年: | 2013
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| 卷: | 4, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 245
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| 结束页码: | 268
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Feedback
; Forecasting
; Sea ice
; Conflict of interest
; Conflicts of interest
; Numerical weather prediction
; Seasonal climate forecast
; Seasonal climate predictability
; Seasonal forecasting
; Seasonal prediction
; Status and prospect
; Weather forecasting
; climate prediction
; forecasting method
; seasonality
; weather forecasting
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| 英文摘要: | Seasonal climate forecasts occupy an intermediate zone between weather forecasting and climate projections. They share with the numerical weather prediction the difficulty of initializing the simulations with a realistic state of the atmosphere and the need to periodically verify different aspects of their quality, while additionally are burdened by uncertainties in feedback processes that also play a central role in constraining climate projections. Seasonal predictions have to deal also with the challenge of initializing all the components of the climate system (ocean, sea ice, and land surface). The value of skilful seasonal forecasts is obvious for many societal sectors and is currently being included in the framework of developing climate services. Seasonal forecasts will in addition be valuable by increasing the acceptance of climate projections among the general public. This advanced-review article presents an overview of the state-of-the-art in global seasonal predictability and forecasting for climate researchers and discusses fundamental advances to increase forecast quality in the near future. The article concludes with a list of challenges where seasonal forecasting is expected to focus on in the near future. WIREs Clim Change 2013, 4:245-268. doi: 10.1002/wcc.217 Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76401
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Instituciò Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain; Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Doblas-Reyes F,J,, García-Serrano J,et al. Seasonal climate predictability and forecasting: Status and prospects[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2013-01-01,4(4)
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