DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84897413530
论文题名: Droughts and floods over the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and their connections to the timing of El Niño and la Niña events
作者: Zaroug M ; A ; H ; , Eltahir E ; A ; B ; , Giorgi F
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 3 起始页码: 1239
结束页码: 1249
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Floods
; Oceanography
; Runoff
; Discharge measurements
; Extreme flood
; Global modeling
; Hydrological droughts
; Number of samples
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Seasonal forecasting
; Temporal pattern
; Drought
; air-sea interaction
; catchment
; drought
; El Nino
; flood
; La Nina
; numerical model
; sea surface temperature
; Blue Nile [Nile River]
; Ethiopia
; Lake Tana
; Nile River
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: The Blue Nile originates from Lake Tana in the Ethiopian Highlands and contributes about 60-69% of the main Nile discharge. Previous studies investigated the relationship of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean (Niño 3.4 region) to occurrence of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Nile Basin. In this paper we focus on the dependence of occurrence of droughts and floods in the upper catchment of the Blue Nile on the timing of El Niño and La Niña events. Different events start at different times of the year and follow each other, exhibiting different patterns and sequences. Here we study the impact of these timing and temporal patterns on the Blue Nile droughts and floods. The comparison between the discharge measurements (1965-2012) at the outlet of the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and the El Niño index shows that when an El Niño event is followed by a La Niña event, there is a 67% chance for occurrence of an extreme flood. Furthermore, we also found that 83% of El Niño events starting in April-June resulted in droughts in the upper catchment of the Blue Nile. Although the current study is limited by the reduced number of samples, we propose that observations as well as global model forecasts of SST during this season could be used in seasonal forecasting of the Blue Nile flow. © Author(s) 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78284
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Center for Theoretical Physics, Earth System Physics, Trieste, Italy; Dinder Center for Environmental Research, Khartoum, Sudan; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cambridge, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zaroug M,A,H,et al. Droughts and floods over the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and their connections to the timing of El Niño and la Niña events[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(3)