DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-353-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84893332144
论文题名: Hydrological model calibration for derived flood frequency analysis using stochastic rainfall and probability distributions of peak flows
作者: Haberlandt U ; , Radtke I
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 1 起始页码: 353
结束页码: 365
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Continuous simulation
; Derived flood frequency analysis
; Derived flood frequency distributions
; Hydrological model calibrations
; Hydrological modeling
; Mesoscale catchments
; Model parameter sets
; Stochastic rainfalls
; Calibration
; Catchments
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Flood control
; Floods
; Probability distributions
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic systems
; Time series
; Rain
; calibration
; catchment
; data set
; discharge
; flood
; flood control
; frequency analysis
; hydrological modeling
; numerical model
; peak flow
; precipitation (climatology)
; rainfall
; stochasticity
; Germany
英文摘要: Derived flood frequency analysis allows the estimation of design floods with hydrological modeling for poorly observed basins considering change and taking into account flood protection measures. There are several possible choices regarding precipitation input, discharge output and consequently the calibration of the model. The objective of this study is to compare different calibration strategies for a hydrological model considering various types of rainfall input and runoff output data sets and to propose the most suitable approach. Event based and continuous, observed hourly rainfall data as well as disaggregated daily rainfall and stochastically generated hourly rainfall data are used as input for the model. As output, short hourly and longer daily continuous flow time series as well as probability distributions of annual maximum peak flow series are employed. The performance of the strategies is evaluated using the obtained different model parameter sets for continuous simulation of discharge in an independent validation period and by comparing the model derived flood frequency distributions with the observed one. The investigations are carried out for three mesoscale catchments in northern Germany with the hydrological model HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System). The results show that (I) the same type of precipitation input data should be used for calibration and application of the hydrological model, (II) a model calibrated using a small sample of extreme values works quite well for the simulation of continuous time series with moderate length but not vice versa, and (III) the best performance with small uncertainty is obtained when stochastic precipitation data and the observed probability distribution of peak flows are used for model calibration. This outcome suggests to calibrate a hydrological model directly on probability distributions of observed peak flows using stochastic rainfall as input if its purpose is the application for derived flood frequency analysis. © 2014 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78340
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Water Resources Management, Hydrology and Agricultural Hydraulic Engineering, Leibniz University of Hannover, Hannover, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Haberlandt U,, Radtke I. Hydrological model calibration for derived flood frequency analysis using stochastic rainfall and probability distributions of peak flows[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(1)