DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-1181-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84924130956
论文题名: Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River
作者: Siam M ; S ; , Eltahir E ; A ; B
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 3 起始页码: 1181
结束页码: 1192
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Oscillating flow
; Rivers
; Surface waters
; Eastern pacific Ocean
; Hybrid forecasting
; Interannual variability
; Natural variability
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Southern indian ocean
; Southern oscillation
; Twentieth century
; Oceanography
; algorithm
; annual variation
; data set
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; forecasting method
; river flow
; sea surface temperature
; teleconnection
; twentieth century
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (South)
; Nile River
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (East)
英文摘要: This study analyzes extensive data sets collected during the twentieth century and defines four modes of natural variability in the flow of the Nile River, identifying a new significant potential for improving predictability of floods and droughts. Previous studies have identified a significant teleconnection between the Nile flow and the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains about 25% of the interannual variability in the Nile flow. Here, this study identifies a region in the southern Indian Ocean, with a similarly strong teleconnection to the Nile flow. Sea surface temperature (SST) in the region (50-80° E and 25-35° S) explains 28% of the interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River and, when combined with the ENSO index, the explained variability of the flow of the Nile River increases to 44%. In addition, during those years with anomalous SST conditions in both oceans, this study estimates that indices of the SSTs in the Pacific and Indian oceans can collectively explain up to 84% of the interannual variability in the flow of the Nile. Building on these findings, this study uses the classical Bayesian theorem to develop a new hybrid forecasting algorithm that predicts the Nile flow based on global model predictions of indices of the SST in the eastern Pacific and southern Indian oceans. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78584
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 15 Vassar St., Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Siam M,S,, Eltahir E,et al. Explaining and forecasting interannual variability in the flow of the Nile River[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(3)