DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-4115-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027494162
论文题名: Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin
作者: Aloysius N ; , Saiers J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 8 起始页码: 4115
结束页码: 4130
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Decision making
; Ecosystems
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Runoff
; Water resources
; Watersheds
; Climate change adaptation
; Climate change mitigation
; Decision making process
; Hydrological modeling
; Multi-model ensemble
; Precipitation and runoff
; Spatial and temporal variability
; Temperature projection
; Climate change
英文摘要: Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB) have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016-2035) and mid-century (2046-2065). We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5ĝ€% [ĝ'9ĝ€%; 20ĝ€%] (mean-min and max-across model ensembles) over the next two decades and by 7ĝ€% [ĝ'12ĝ€%; 24ĝ€%] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-As-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5) are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation. © Author(s) 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79085
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States; Department of Food, Department of Evolution, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States
Recommended Citation:
Aloysius N,, Saiers J. Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(8)