DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-707-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85011628910
论文题名: Short to sub-seasonal hydrologic forecast to manage water and agricultural resources in India
作者: Shah R ; , Sahai A ; K ; , Mishra V
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期: 2 起始页码: 707
结束页码: 720
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Atmospheric temperature
; Decision making
; Moisture
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Runoff
; Soil moisture
; Water resources
; Weather forecasting
; Accumulation periods
; Agricultural resources
; Corrected precipitation
; Ensemble forecast systems
; Root zone soil moistures
; Temperature forecasts
; Tropical meteorology
; Variable infiltration capacity models
; Forecasting
; air temperature
; climate prediction
; drought
; forecasting method
; hydrological regime
; numerical model
; precipitation assessment
; resource management
; runoff
; soil moisture
; water planning
; water resource
; weather forecasting
; India
英文摘要: Water resources and agriculture are often affected by the weather anomalies in India resulting in disproportionate damage. While short to sub-seasonal prediction systems and forecast products are available, a skilful hydrologic forecast of runoff and root-zone soil moisture that can provide timely information has been lacking in India. Using precipitation and air temperature forecasts from the Climate Forecast System v2 (CFSv2), the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv2) and four products from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), here we show that the IITM ensemble mean (mean of all four products from the IITM) can be used operationally to provide a hydrologic forecast in India at a 7-45-day accumulation period. The IITM ensemble mean forecast was further improved using bias correction for precipitation and air temperature. Bias corrected precipitation forecast showed an improvement of 2.1-mm (on the all-India median mean absolute error-MAE), while all-India median bias corrected temperature forecast was improved by 2.1-°C for a 45-day accumulation period. Moreover, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model simulated forecast of runoff and soil moisture successfully captured the observed anomalies during the severe drought years. The findings reported herein have strong implications for providing timely information that can help farmers and water managers in decision making in India. © 2017 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79273
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Gandhinagar, ITRA Proj.: Msrmt. to Mgmt: Improved Water Use Efficiency and Agric, Productivity Through Exp. Sensor Netwk., Gandhinagar, India; Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India
Recommended Citation:
Shah R,, Sahai A,K,et al. Short to sub-seasonal hydrologic forecast to manage water and agricultural resources in India[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(2)