globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-6219-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042137469
论文题名:
Moment-based metrics for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological systems
作者: Dell'Oca A; , Riva M; , Guadagnini A
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2017
卷: 21, 期:12
起始页码: 6219
结束页码: 6234
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aquifers ; Design of experiments ; Probability density function ; Risk assessment ; Uncertainty analysis ; Generalized polynomial chaos ; Global sensitivity analysis ; Model reduction techniques ; Original system model ; Theoretical framework ; Transport experiments ; Uncertain parameters ; Uncertainty quantifications ; Sensitivity analysis
英文摘要: We propose new metrics to assist global sensitivity analysis, GSA, of hydrological and Earth systems. Our approach allows assessing the impact of uncertain parameters on main features of the probability density function, pdf, of a target model output, y. These include the expected value of y, the spread around the mean and the degree of symmetry and tailedness of the pdf of y. Since reliable assessment of higher-order statistical moments can be computationally demanding, we couple our GSA approach with a surrogate model, approximating the full model response at a reduced computational cost. Here, we consider the generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE), other model reduction techniques being fully compatible with our theoretical framework. We demonstrate our approach through three test cases, including an analytical benchmark, a simplified scenario mimicking pumping in a coastal aquifer and a laboratory-scale conservative transport experiment. Our results allow ascertaining which parameters can impact some moments of the model output pdf while being uninfluential to others. We also investigate the error associated with the evaluation of our sensitivity metrics by replacing the original system model through a gPCE. Our results indicate that the construction of a surrogate model with increasing level of accuracy might be required depending on the statistical moment considered in the GSA. The approach is fully compatible with (and can assist the development of) analysis techniques employed in the context of reduction of model complexity, model calibration, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment. © Author(s) 2017.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/79316
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale (DICA), Politecnico di Milano, Piazza L. Da Vinci, 32, Milan, Italy; Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States

Recommended Citation:
Dell'Oca A,, Riva M,, Guadagnini A. Moment-based metrics for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological systems[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017-01-01,21(12)
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