DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2016.1179618
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84973161441
论文题名: Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of deep decarbonization pathways
作者: Mathy S ; , Criqui P ; , Knoop K ; , Fischedick M ; , Samadi S
刊名: Climate Policy
ISSN: 1469-3062
EISSN: 1752-7457
出版年: 2016
卷: 16 起始页码: S47
结束页码: S62
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decarbonization strategy
; dynamic adaptive pathways
; France
; Germany
; mitigation scenario
Scopus关键词: adaptive management
; emission control
; policy approach
; policy implementation
; policy making
; uncertainty analysis
; France
; Germany
Scopus学科分类: nvironmental Science: General Environmental Science
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Atmospheric Science
英文摘要: Contrary to ‘static’ pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. Given structural, effectiveness, and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option, they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues. Such an adaptive pathway strategy should combine long-lived incentives, like a pre-announced escalating carbon price, to form consistent expectations, as well as adaptive policies to improve overall robustness and resilience. We sketch key elements of a monitoring process based on an ex ante definition of leading indicators that should be assessed regularly and combined with signposts and trigger values at the subsector level. Policy relevance These research questions are of special interest and urgency following the Paris Agreement in 2015. It calls on all countries to monitor the implementation of their national contributions and review their ambition regularly. The regular revision of decarbonization pathways constitute a great research opportunity to gather experiences on decarbonization pathway implementation and on dynamic management issues to progress towards an operational dynamic adaptive policy pathway mechanism. © 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80367
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划
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作者单位: GAEL, CNRS, Grenoble INP, INRA, Université Grenoble-Alpes, 38400 Saint Martin d'Hères, France; Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Doeppersberg 19, Wuppertal, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Mathy S,, Criqui P,, Knoop K,et al. Uncertainty management and the dynamic adjustment of deep decarbonization pathways[J]. Climate Policy,2016-01-01,16