DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.01.045
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84896834539
论文题名: Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): II. Uncertainty analyses of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions
作者: Yan F ; , Winijkul E ; , Bond T ; C ; , Streets D ; G
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2014
卷: 87 起始页码: 189
结束页码: 199
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Emission projection
; Monte Carlo simulations
; On-road
; Particulate matter (PM)
; Uncertainty analysis
Scopus关键词: Air pollutant emission
; Emission inventories
; Emission projections
; Emission uncertainties
; Knowledge about technology
; On-road
; Particulate Matter
; Vehicle exhaust emissions
; Air quality
; Degradation
; Monte Carlo methods
; Roads and streets
; Uncertainty analysis
; air quality
; atmospheric pollution
; exhaust emission
; Monte Carlo analysis
; particulate matter
; quality control
; uncertainty analysis
; air pollutant
; air quality control
; article
; atmosphere
; exhaust gas
; knowledge
; Monte Carlo method
; particulate matter
; priority journal
; sensitivity analysis
; standard
; technology
; uncertainty
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: Estimates of future emissions are necessary for understanding the future health of the atmosphere, designing national and international strategies for air quality control, and evaluating mitigation policies. Emission inventories are uncertain and future projections even more so, thus it is important to quantify the uncertainty inherent in emission projections.This paper is the second in a series that seeks to establish a more mechanistic understanding of future air pollutant emissions based on changes in technology. The first paper in this series (Yan etal., 2011) described a model that projects emissions based on dynamic changes of vehicle fleet, Speciated Pollutant Emission Wizard-Trend, or SPEW-Trend. In this paper, we explore the underlying uncertainties of global and regional exhaust PM emission projections from on-road vehicles in the coming decades using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation.This work examines the emission sensitivities due to uncertainties in retirement rate, timing of emission standards, transition rate of high-emitting vehicles called "superemitters", and emission factor degradation rate. It is concluded that global emissions are most sensitive to parameters in the retirement rate function. Monte Carlo simulations show that emission uncertainty caused by lack of knowledge about technology composition is comparable to the uncertainty demonstrated by alternative economic scenarios, especially during the period 2010-2030. © 2014. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/80741
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, United States; Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439, United States
Recommended Citation:
Yan F,, Winijkul E,, Bond T,et al. Global emission projections of particulate matter (PM): II. Uncertainty analyses of on-road vehicle exhaust emissions[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2014-01-01,87