DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066173
论文题名: An alternate approach to ensemble ENSO forecast spread: Application to the 2014 forecast
作者: Larson S.M. ; Kirtman B.P.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8466
EISSN: 1944-8197
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 21 起始页码: 9411
结束页码: 9415
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ensemble forecast
; ENSO
; forecast spread
; stochastic processes
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Errors
; Nickel
; Oceanography
; Random processes
; Stochastic systems
; Surface waters
; Alternate approaches
; Coupled modeling
; Ensemble forecasts
; ENSO
; Initial conditions
; Retrospective assessments
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Southern oscillation
; Forecasting
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; error analysis
; forecasting method
; prediction
; sea surface temperature
; stochasticity
; temporal analysis
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Evaluating the 2014 El Niño forecast as a "bust" may be tapping into a bigger issue, namely that forecast "overconfidence" from single-model ensembles could affect the retrospective assessment of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. The present study proposes a new approach to quantifying an "expected" spread and uncertainty from noise-driven processes and supplementing these measures with actual ENSO forecasts. Expanding on a previously developed coupled model framework that isolates noise-driven ENSO-like errors, an experimental design is implemented to generate an expected December Niño-3.4 spread from March initial condition sea surface temperature errors that have similar structure to the 2014 and 2015 observed. Results reveal that the 2014 ENSO forecast falls within the expected uncertainty generated by ENSO-independent, forecast-independent, noise-driven errors. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84954467682&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL066173&partnerID=40&md5=c51885eeb8fa81d3fb01e5e8ece31ffd
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8082
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Larson S.M.,Kirtman B.P.. An alternate approach to ensemble ENSO forecast spread: Application to the 2014 forecast[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(21).