| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-018-2206-2
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85046143651
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| 论文题名: | Global carbon budgets and the viability of new fossil fuel projects |
| 作者: | Jaccard M.; Hoffele J.; Jaccard T.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 起始页码: | 1
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| 结束页码: | 14
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | 2 °C
; Carbon budget
; Energy-economy-emissions models
; Oil pipelines
; Oil price models
; Oil sands
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| Scopus关键词: | Budget control
; Carbon
; Climate models
; Commerce
; Competition
; Costs
; Fossil fuels
; Investments
; Oil sands
; Petroleum pipelines
; Probability distributions
; Sand
; Sensitivity analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Carbon budgets
; Economically viable
; Emissions model
; Global modeling
; Oil consumption
; Oil pipelines
; Oil Prices
; Temperature rise
; Proven reserves
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| 英文摘要: | Policy-makers of some fossil fuel-endowed countries wish to know if a given fossil fuel supply project is consistent with the global carbon budget that would prevent a 2 °C temperature rise. But while some studies have identified fossil fuel reserves that are inconsistent with the 2 °C carbon budget, they have not shown the effect on fossil fuel production costs and market prices. Focusing on oil, we develop an oil pricing and climate test model to which we apply future carbon prices and oil consumption from several global energy-economy-emissions models that simulate the energy supply and demand effects of the 2 °C carbon budget. Our oil price model includes key oil market attributes, notably upper and lower market share boundaries for different oil producer categories, such as OPEC. Using the distribution of the global model results as an indicator of uncertainty about future carbon prices and oil demand, we estimate the probability that a new investment of a given oil source category would be economically viable under the 2 °C carbon budget. In our case study of Canada’s oil sands, we find a less than 5% probability that oil sands investments, and therefore new oil pipelines, would be economically viable over the next three decades under the 2 °C carbon budget. Our sensitivity analysis finds that if OPEC agreed to reduce its market share to 30% by 2045, a significant reduction from its steady 40–45% of the past 25 years, then the probability of viable oil sands expansion rises to 30%. © 2018 Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83723
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Jaccard M.,Hoffele J.,Jaccard T.. Global carbon budgets and the viability of new fossil fuel projects[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01
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