DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2199-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85046011453
论文题名: Indices of Canada’s future climate for general and agricultural adaptation applications
作者: Li G. ; Zhang X. ; Cannon A.J. ; Murdock T. ; Sobie S. ; Zwiers F. ; Anderson K. ; Qian B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
起始页码: 1
结束页码: 15
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Ecology
; Global warming
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Climate change impact
; Climate change projections
; Extreme precipitation
; Global-mean temperature
; Growing season lengths
; Multi-model ensemble
; Statistical downscaling
; Temperature thresholds
; Climate models
英文摘要: This study evaluates regional-scale projections of climate indices that are relevant to climate change impacts in Canada. We consider indices of relevance to different sectors including those that describe heat conditions for different crop types, temperature threshold exceedances relevant for human beings and ecological ecosystems such as the number of days temperatures are above certain thresholds, utility relevant indices that indicate levels of energy demand for cooling or heating, and indices that represent precipitation conditions. Results are based on an ensemble of high-resolution statistically downscaled climate change projections from 24 global climate models (GCMs) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. The statistical downscaling approach includes a bias-correction procedure, resulting in more realistic indices than those computed from the original GCM data. We find that the level of projected changes in the indices scales well with the projected increase in the global mean temperature and is insensitive to the emission scenarios. At the global warming level about 2.1 °C above pre-industrial (corresponding to the multi-model ensemble mean for 2031–2050 under the RCP8.5 scenario), there is almost complete model agreement on the sign of projected changes in temperature indices for every region in Canada. This includes projected increases in extreme high temperatures and cooling demand, growing season length, and decrease in heating demand. Models project much larger changes in temperature indices at the higher 4.5 °C global warming level (corresponding to 2081–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario). Models also project an increase in total precipitation, in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, and in extreme precipitation. Uncertainty is high in precipitation projections, with the result that models do not fully agree on the sign of changes in most regions even at the 4.5 °C global warming level. © 2018 The Author(s) Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83728
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa Research and Development Centre, Ottawa, ON, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Li G.,Zhang X.,Cannon A.J.,et al. Indices of Canada’s future climate for general and agricultural adaptation applications[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01