globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84984780920
论文题名:
Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities
作者: Anderson G.B.; Oleson K.W.; Jones B.; Peng R.D.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 455
结束页码: 470
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Earth (planet) ; Health risks ; Adaptation scenarios ; Earth system model ; Heatwaves ; Mortality risk ; National center for atmospheric researches ; Population change ; Population exposure ; Climate models
英文摘要: Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061–2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario—going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83811
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Lake Street, Fort Collins, CO, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, New York, NY, United States; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States

Recommended Citation:
Anderson G.B.,Oleson K.W.,Jones B.,et al. Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)
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