DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2098-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85032493367
论文题名: Projecting future nonstationary extreme streamflow for the Fraser River, Canada
作者: Shrestha R.R. ; Cannon A.J. ; Schnorbus M.A. ; Zwiers F.W.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 145, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 289
结束页码: 303
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Statistical methods
; Stream flow
; Climate change scenarios
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Extreme value analysis
; Hydrologic modeling
; Precipitation change
; Spring precipitation
; Statistical modeling
; Variable infiltration capacities
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; extreme event
; hydrological modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; return period
; seasonal variation
; streamflow
; temperature effect
; British Columbia
; Canada
; Fraser River
英文摘要: We describe an efficient and flexible statistical modeling framework for projecting nonstationary streamflow extremes for the Fraser River basin in Canada, which is dominated by nival flow regime. The framework is based on an extreme value analysis technique that allows for nonstationarity in annual extreme streamflow by relating it to antecedent winter and spring precipitation and temperature. We used a representative suite of existing Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model simulations driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) climate simulations to train and evaluate a nonlinear and nonstationary extreme value model of annual extreme streamflow. The model was subsequently used to project changes under CMIP5-based climate change scenarios. Using this combination of process-based and statistical modeling, we project that the moderate (e.g., 2–20-year return period) extreme streamflow events will decrease in intensity. In contrast, projections of high intensity events (e.g., 100–200-year return period), which reflect complex interactions between temperature and precipitation changes, are inconclusive. The results provide a basis for developing a general understanding of the future streamflow extremes changes in nival basins and through careful consideration and adoption of appropriate covariates, the methodology could be employed for basins spanning a range of hydro-climatological regimes. © 2017, Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83862
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Shrestha R.R.,Cannon A.J.,Schnorbus M.A.,et al. Projecting future nonstationary extreme streamflow for the Fraser River, Canada[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,145(2018-03-04)